One in Eight Likely Voters Has Bet or Plans to Bet on the Midterm Elections
New Targoz national poll finds election bettors skew younger, male, and Republican, even as Democrats hold a narrow lead on the congressional ballot.
About one in eight likely voters (12%) have already placed a real-money bet or traded a prediction-market contract on the November 2026 elections, or plan to do so before Election Day, according to a new national poll by Targoz Market Research.
The national survey of 1,400 registered voters, screened for likelihood to vote, and conducted October 20–22, 2026, found that 9% of likely voters have already placed an election-related bet or traded a prediction-market contract on platforms such as Kalshi or Polymarket. Another 3% plan to participate before Election Day, while 10% are considering it.
Bettors are overwhelmingly male, disproportionately younger, and more financially comfortable than the electorate overall. They also lean Republican, despite a narrow Democratic advantage on the national congressional ballot.
Key Findings
12% of likely voters have already bet or plan to bet on the November elections, while another 10% are considering it.
Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 49% to 46% among likely voters, with 1% supporting another candidate and 3% undecided.
Republicans are more likely to participate in election betting. Among registered voters, 15% of Republicans have bet or plan to bet, compared with 11% of Democrats and 7% of independents and others.
Those who have already bet are predominantly young and male. Men account for 76% of active election bettors, and 94% are younger than 55.
Election bettors are less worried about affordability issues. More than one-third (37%) say their regular expenses are easier to afford than a year ago, compared with just 14% of registered voters overall.
Active election bettors are frequent users of prediction markets. Among those who have already bet on the elections, 82% use prediction-market apps at least several times a week, compared with 15% of registered voters overall.
Democrats Hold a Narrow Lead on the Congressional Ballot
Democrats lead Republicans 49% to 46% among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot. Another 1% support a different candidate, while 3% remain undecided.
Among likely voters who had already cast their ballots when the survey was conducted, Democrats lead 51% to 47%. Among those who had not yet voted, Democrats hold a narrower 47% to 46% advantage, with 6% undecided.
Independent voters and those affiliated with other parties favor the Democratic candidate by a 48% to 42% margin.
Partisan loyalty remains strong. Republicans support their party's congressional candidate by 94% to 2%, while Democrats favor their party's candidate by 97% to 0%.
But the picture looks different among voters who have already placed election-related bets. Within that group, likely voters favor the Republican congressional candidate 55% to 43%.
Who Is Betting on the Elections?
Those who have already placed election-related bets differ sharply from the broader electorate.
Men make up 76% of active election bettors, compared with 48% of registered voters overall.
Nearly all active bettors (94%) are younger than 55. More than one-third (36%) are ages 18–34, while 58% are ages 35–54.
The racial and ethnic composition of election bettors also differs notably from the electorate. About one-third are non-Hispanic White, compared with 72% of all registered voters. Hispanic voters account for 28% of active bettors, compared with 10% overall, while Black voters represent 22%, compared with 11% of registered voters.
The findings mirror earlier research on sports betting. A 2022 study by Arizona State University's Global Sport Institute identified young Hispanic men as leading participants in the growing U.S. sports betting market. The similarities suggest that some of the demographic patterns observed in sports betting may extend to election prediction markets.
Active election bettors are more likely to work full-time, have children at home, and report higher household incomes.
Nearly two-thirds (65%) are employed full-time, compared with 36% of registered voters. More than two-thirds (68%) have children younger than 18 living at home, compared with 29% overall.
Election Bettors Are Less Financially Strained
A majority (55%) report annual household incomes of $100,000 or more, compared with 41% of all registered voters.
Their financial outlook is especially striking.
More than one-third of active bettors (37%) say their regular expenses are easier to afford than a year ago, while 22% say they are harder to afford.
Among registered voters overall, the picture is almost reversed. Just 14% say their expenses are easier to afford, while 57% say they are harder.
More Republican and intensely engaged in politics
Nearly half of active election bettors identify as Republicans, compared with 37% of all registered voters. Nearly six in ten (59%) say they voted for Donald Trump in 2024, compared with 50% of the electorate surveyed.
Active bettors are also more likely to describe themselves as politically moderate (61%) compared with 37% of registered voters overall.
Political identity appears especially important to this group. Nine in ten active bettors (90%) agree that their political beliefs are central to who they are and give their lives a sense of purpose or meaning. Among registered voters overall, 61% express the same sentiment.
Election bettors are also more likely to have already voted. When the poll was conducted, 46% had cast their ballots, compared with 36% of all registered voters.
Election bettors are not simply casual observers wagering on political outcomes. They are a politically attentive and highly engaged segment of the electorate.
Voters Considering a Bet Look Different
The next potential wave of election bettors looks considerably different from those who have already participated.
Among registered voters, 11% say they have not yet placed an election-related bet but are considering doing so.
Unlike active bettors, this group is evenly divided between men and women. Independents also account for a larger share: 34%, compared with 25% of registered voters overall.
Their political preferences are less Republican. In the 2024 presidential election, 46% say they voted for Kamala Harris, compared with 38% who voted for Donald Trump.
Among likely voters considering an election bet, Democrats lead the congressional ballot 49% to 40%, with another 8% favoring another candidate.
Many are already familiar with online betting and prediction markets. Among registered voters considering an election bet, 39% use prediction-market apps at least several times a week, while 41% use sports-betting apps with the same frequency.
A substantial share of potential election bettors already uses prediction-market or sports-betting apps, suggesting that election wagering could become an extension of their existing betting activity.
Election Betting Reflects a Changing Political Audience
Election betting remains a narrow market, but the demographic and political differences among participants reveal an audience that looks considerably different from the electorate overall.
Those who have already placed election-related bets are predominantly younger men, more likely to identify as Republican, and considerably more likely to report financial security. They are also unusually engaged in politics, with nine in ten saying their political beliefs are central to their identity and give their lives meaning or purpose.
Yet the voters considering an election bet look very different. They are evenly divided between men and women, include more independents, and lean Democratic in their congressional preferences.
Do political prediction markets primarily attract a highly engaged segment of the electorate, or will they become a more mainstream way for Americans to follow and participate in politics?
For now, election betting is concentrated among a distinctive group of voters. But the differences between those already betting and those considering their first wager suggest the audience may be changing.
Survey Methodology
Targoz Market Research conducted a national survey of 1,400 registered voters, screened for likelihood to vote, October 20–22, 2026. Results for likely voters are based on the survey's likely-voter subgroup. Demographic and partisan comparisons are based on registered voters unless otherwise indicated.
Only respondents who passed strict data quality checks were included in the final results and compensated for participating.
Sampling was stratified and weighted by demographics, geography, behavioral measures, and party affiliation.
Estimated margin of error: +/- 2.57%
Due to weighting and rounding, percentages may not always total exactly 100%.