Tennessee Poll: Blackburn Leads Green, Hagerty Leads Bradshaw
Republican Marsha Blackburn leads Democrat Jerri Green 54% to 35% in the race for Tennessee governor, according to the final Targoz Market Research poll of the 2026 cycle. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Bill Hagerty leads Democrat Marquita Bradshaw 57% to 37%.
The poll surveyed 1,000 registered voters from October 24 through November 2, 2026. Results for both races are among voters who have already voted or are likely to vote (n=718 for governor; n=716 for Senate).
Governor
Independent David Hatley receives 7%, and independent Lauren Pinkston receives 1%. Another 1% choose someone else, and 2% are undecided.
Blackburn leads among both early and Election Day voters. Among voters who have already cast a ballot, Blackburn leads 51% to 35%, with Hatley at 7%. Another 4% of early voters declined to say how they voted. Among likely Election Day voters, Blackburn leads 55% to 33% with Hatley at 7% and 5% undecided.
U.S. Senate
Hagerty leads by approximately 20 points. Another 3% choose someone else, and 3% are undecided.
Among early voters, Hagerty leads 52% to 40%, and 5% declined to say how they voted. Among likely Election Day voters, Hagerty leads 61% to 28%, with 10% undecided.
Voter Profile
Two-thirds of voters who have voted or are likely to vote (66%) report they have already cast a ballot.
By party, this group identifies as 50% Republican, 28% Democrat, and 21% Independent. By ideology, 48% describe themselves as conservative, 30% as moderate, and 22% as liberal.
Asked about the 2024 presidential election, 57% of these voters report voting for Donald Trump, 35% for Kamala Harris, and 3% for someone else; 5% report they did not vote in 2024. Among those who voted in 2024, the split is 60% Trump to 37% Harris.
Crosstabs
Methodology
Online poll of n=1,000 registered voters in Tennessee.
Only respondents who passed our data quality checks were included in the final results and compensated for participating.
Sampling was stratified by demographics and geography.
Results were weighted by demographics, party, geography, and behavioral measures to properly reflect the profile of the state.
Estimated margin of error: +/- 3.04%.
Fieldwork: October 24 through November 2, 2026.
Due to weighting and rounding, percentages may not always total exactly 100%.
Subgroup margins of error are larger.