Poll Today, Gone Tomorrow

The latest employment numbers continue to show significant improvement in the economy. Granted, the recent numbers have been a jumbled mess due to Easter and the Census. But if you look below the misleading headlines and campaign speeches, you will find significant improvement.

It looks like the private sector produced 123,000 jobs in March and 60% of all reporting industries indicated job growth. I think it is now safe to say the economy is growing again and the recession did indeed end in July or August of last year. We have turned a corner and the immediate future is looking better.

Granted, the picture is not completely rosy. Those unemployed less than 26 weeks are likely to get recalled to work. However, those unemployed for more than 26 weeks due to a plant closure will probably remain unemployed for a significant amount of time. 

Moderate GDP growth of 2 to 3 % for 2010 and 2011 is definitely on tap.

One thing to watch out for is the impact of a growing economy on the fall elections. Republicans have partially enjoyed relative strength on most generic polls due to the problems in the economy. As the economy begins to expand, democratic candidates in communities with less structural unemployment (i.e. areas without significant plant closures) will be able to point to the improvement in the economy and make the case that their policies are working.

A key to successfully interpreting research is to realize that polling and market research is a snapshot of today, not tomorrow. When assessing the results of any project, you have to include other inputs and information (such as economic data) to really understand what is happening and most importantly what you will face tomorrow or in November.

Glimmer of Consumer Optimism

BIGresearch's March 2010 Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey contains a few kernels of optimism on the economic front. Here are a few highlights:

• In March, fewer than one in three (29.8%) contend they are confident/very confident in chances for a strong economy. While this figure has risen 2+ points from a month ago (27.2%), it continues in the “about 30%” holding pattern begun in May-09. This month’s reading represents an improvement from a year ago (19.5%) as well as Mar-08 (24.8%), but is still well below Mar-07’s 46.9%.
• One in five (20.6%) assert that they worry more about political/national security issues, down nearly a point from last month (21.3%) and three points from Mar-09 (23.8%).
• Consumer confidence showed slight improvement from February, nearly half of those surveyed (48.4%) contend they’ve become more practical in purchasing, up five points from a month ago (43.3%), but still below the 52.7% reading recorded in Mar-09.
• More than half of those surveyed (55.7%) say they are focused on just the necessities when spending, up more than three points from a month ago (52.1%), but lower than Mar-09’s (58.1%).

Pocketbook Vs The Medicine Cabinet

During a rough economy, pocketbook issues are always number among voters. According to the latest American Pulse™ Survey, a majority of Americans (55.5%) think the #1 issue that the President and Congress should be focusing their attention on is the economy.  Following not so closely behind is: Healthcare Reform (18.3%), Terrorism (6.4%), Social Security (5.8%) and Afghanistan (5%).

Seemingly, everyone and everything is focused on healthcare and not the economy. Talk about ignoring the needs of your customers/voters.

The study also found that 81.9% of Americans say the U.S. Government is spending too much. Of those who agree, 76.9% say the high level of spending may be sacrificing future economic growth. Over 60% of Americans have negative feelings towards Government spending.

Regarding Government spending, which of the following best describes your feelings?  (Adults 18+)     

Angry, debt is bad	30.7%
Happy, debt is good if it helps people	6.2%
Powerless, no one in Government                   seems to care	37.8%
Empowered, the more Government                does, the better it is for everyone	6.1%
Unsure	19.3

Yes, healthcare reform is important. But not addressing the country’s number one issue and piling up a mountain of debt in the process is irrational and incredibly out of touch. Is it really a wonder that more than one out of three Americans say they feel powerless in regards to government spending? A lot can happen in a year, but I have no doubt that voters will be empowered to punish incumbents in 2010.