It looks like the private sector produced 123,000 jobs in March and 60% of all reporting industries indicated job growth. I think it is now safe to say the economy is growing again and the recession did indeed end in July or August of last year. We have turned a corner and the immediate future is looking better.

Granted, the picture is not completely rosy. Those unemployed less than 26 weeks are likely to get recalled to work. However, those unemployed for more than 26 weeks due to a plant closure will probably remain unemployed for a significant amount of time. 

Moderate GDP growth of 2 to 3 % for 2010 and 2011 is definitely on tap.

One thing to watch out for is the impact of a growing economy on the fall elections. Republicans have partially enjoyed relative strength on most generic polls due to the problems in the economy. As the economy begins to expand, democratic candidates in communities with less structural unemployment (i.e. areas without significant plant closures) will be able to point to the improvement in the economy and make the case that their policies are working.

A key to successfully interpreting research is to realize that polling and market research is a snapshot of today, not tomorrow. When assessing the results of any project, you have to include other inputs and information (such as economic data) to really understand what is happening and most importantly what you will face tomorrow or in November.

AARP is usually ahead of the curve in DC and is a great example of an organization that keeps an eye on the political tealeaves when looking for opportunities to grow. This is an important lesson for every business. One change in law can have a dramatic impact on your business. Keep an eye on Washington and plan accordingly. It could be the difference between a very good year, or very very bad one.

• In March, fewer than one in three (29.8%) contend they are confident/very confident in chances for a strong economy. While this figure has risen 2+ points from a month ago (27.2%), it continues in the “about 30%” holding pattern begun in May-09. This month’s reading represents an improvement from a year ago (19.5%) as well as Mar-08 (24.8%), but is still well below Mar-07’s 46.9%.
• One in five (20.6%) assert that they worry more about political/national security issues, down nearly a point from last month (21.3%) and three points from Mar-09 (23.8%).
• Consumer confidence showed slight improvement from February, nearly half of those surveyed (48.4%) contend they’ve become more practical in purchasing, up five points from a month ago (43.3%), but still below the 52.7% reading recorded in Mar-09.
• More than half of those surveyed (55.7%) say they are focused on just the necessities when spending, up more than three points from a month ago (52.1%), but lower than Mar-09’s (58.1%).

Starting a business right now is difficult, but not impossible. Financing is one of the major roadblocks which is forcing many new entrepreneurs to bootstrap or use plastic. Once the banks are allowed to start lending, new business activity should begin to grow.

Having recently completed a series of focus groups with small business owners, I can attest that this is very true. Most businesses are looking for payback in 18 months or less and do not want any long term debt obligations regardless of the attractiveness of the offer.

If you want to be a successful business owner, enthusiasm is a must. I would also add patience, a thick skin, and determination as a few other necessities.

Last place… Detroit.

Sad to see that my hometown of Nashville came in at #28, but that is an improvement over last year’s ranking of 33.

Last year, I bet that the economy would improve in the 3^rd and 4^th quarter. Fortunately, it did begin to rebound in the 3^rd quarter. There was simply too much money pumped into the system for it not to improve.

So what can we expect from 2010?

Improvement. Despite the recent negative employment news, it definitely looks like the employment market has hit bottom and by February we should start to see signs of an improving labor market. Based on the Fall numbers, auto manufacturers should start to become profitable again, but overall consumer spending will remain weak and choppy. Too much wealth has been destroyed in this recession and it will take some time for real income to rise, which is necessary for strong retail growth.

The dollar remains weak giving strength to exports, local and state government continues to struggle, and commercial real estate continues to tank.

On the plus side, the first half of the year looks positive, especially for stocks. However, inflation or fears of inflation and higher rates becomes the story of the second half of the year.

2010 looks positive. It is 2011 that I’m worried about.

From online postage to inexpensive accounting programs to easy web hosting and development, small businesses can operate nimbly, effectively and on par with larger competitors.

Want a great example? Barbara Heinrich, owner of Local Motion in Minneapolis, built her own mobile-phone application through BuildAnApp to display her hours, location and pictures of new arrivals. Several services have cropped up recently to help small businesses develop iPhone applications so that they can participate in the mobile market including:

• Swebapps.com
• Mobileroadie.com
• Kanchoo.com

If you are looking for a tool to maintain regular contact with customers that are on the go, you should probably check out one of these tools. Remember, you don’t have to be Southwest, CNBC or Amazon to have your own iPhone app.

Here’s a great 2007 article from MSNBC that details why some TV commercials may appear louder than others. In short, they are rarely louder.

As is usually the case, legislators are better off not trying to solve a perceived consumer irritant. It is never as easy as just saying, keep the sounds levels even. There’s always a backstory and the opportunities for “unintended consequences” multiplies in direct proportion to the number of proposed bills drafted to right a wrong.

Plus, don’t we have bigger fish to fry right now?