According to The Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage points in January to 8.3 percent. 

While today’s unemployment numbers are positive and show continued improvement, these numbers probably overstate the pace of recovery.

As Zero Hedge points out, there are some curious changes in the number of people not in the labor force which impacts the numbers:

A month ago, we joked when we said that for Obama to get the unemployment rate to negative by election time, all he has to do is to crush the labor force participation rate to about 55%. Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that’s not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month!

The Labor Force Participation Rate declined to 63.7% in January. This is the percentage of working-age persons in an economy who are employed or are unemployed and actively looking for a job. This rate is well below the typical 66% to 67% rate we experienced for most of the past 20 years.

The participation rate data is the source of the controversy.

Every January, the BLS data includes updated population estimates from the 2010 Census. The change sets a new population base and in accordance with usual practice, BLS does not revise previous household survey estimates.

So the headlines from the BLS release proclaim an unexpected improvement in the unemployment rate. However, the improvement probably exists due to the changes in the population figures and the participation rate, not a sudden surge in hiring. 

When you combine the decreases in the participation rate with modest increases in employment, you see the overall improvement in the unemployment rate that is being widely reported today.

Is the employment market improving? Yes.

Is it robust growth? Probably not.

Was this a positive report? Maybe. But it will take a few more releases to work out the statistical noise related to adjustments in the calculations to really know.

Why all the yelling and controversy?

Only one U.S. president since World War II -- Ronald Reagan -- has been re-elected with a jobless rate above 6 percent. Reagan won a second term in 1984 with 7.2 percent. Since it is an election year, you can expect more charges of manipulating the data from all sides depending on the monthly changes between now and November.

One thing is for sure, I don’t think anyone expects the rate to drop to 6% by November. If it even gets close, expect a lot of continued howls about manipulation of the data by the BLS.

Testimonials are tried and true and part of the fabric of sales. I’ve heard them called a lot of different names  (10 Tall Tales was one of the most creative) and they are truly effective if it applies to the customers need. Prospects want to hear what you’ve done for your previous clients. If they have a customer retention problem, a testimonial about driving traffic to a customer holds little punch. Prospects want to hear success stories that closely resemble their current issues.

It all begins with an understanding of the customer’s needs. If you don’t know what’s bugging them, ask. Then tell them about the amazing successes you have had with previous customers.

Using county level retail sales data, they attempt to show that the large accumulation of household debt prior to the recession in combination with the decline in house prices has been the primary explanation for the onset, severity, and length of the subsequent consumption collapse. They argue that the decline in consumption was much stronger in high leverage counties with large house price declines and is directly linked to high levels of unemployment in the U.S.

The author’s findings, which they detailed in Bloomberg this week, has generated a lot of discussion (see Calculated Risk) including a posting of the author’s summary presentation at Business Insider.

Here’s where I think they missed the boat.

The "accumulation" of debt was not the trigger or key factor in the slowdown. It was the lack of access to debt that contributed to the consumption collapse.

Easy access to debt kept the economy going from 2002-2006. In 2007, access to debt became more and more restrictive which led to a steady decline in consumer credit card balances.

Card-issuing banks tried to rein in risk amid rising delinquencies and charge-offs and before new legislation and regulations were implemented.

US consumers did not become frugal, they no longer had access to easy debt. Both consumers and small business owners with stellar credit scores felt the sting of reduced credit limits and closed accounts.

Starting this past summer, new credit card account originations began to rise and U.S. consumer revolving credit rose indicating that the sustained pullback in consumer lending has started to ease.

Since personal income in the US remains stagnant, much of the economic growth that we have seen over the past few quarters is probably the result of the increased availability/utilization of consumer credit. While this can fuel a strong third and fourth quarter of 2011, I would expect a slow start to 2012 when credit card statements begin to hit consumer’s mail boxes or email.

In a previous post, I talked about the weakness in consumer confidence and its value as a gauge of the economy. In short, weakness in consumer confidence is more a function of the political climate and lack of faith in political leadership rather than a barometer on the current state of the economy.

The same can be said for small business confidence.

Yesterday, the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released their latest issue of the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends including their Index of Small Business Optimism.

The index of small-business optimism rose 1.3 points, nudging the index up to 90.2. This was below the year-to-date average of 91.1 and only slightly better than the average since January 2009. It should be noted that the report is not a random sampling of business owners. The report is based on the responses of 2,077 randomly sampled small businesses in NFIB's membership. So, the results reflect the views of their membership of business owners which is dominated by smaller brick and mortar businesses. Despite that huge caveat, it is widely used in the business press as an indicator of the health of small business in the US.

NFIB’s index typically mirrors consumer confidence. As you can see below, there is a strong positive relationship between NFIB’s Small Business Optimism and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index. I also included the PMI or Purchasing Managers Index from the Institute for Supply Management to illustrate an indicator that does not have as strong a relationship to small business optimism.

Here’s a tip for marketers to small businesses.

Small business owners are people too. Their impressions of the economy strongly resemble the views of the overall public as illustrated in the above chart. You’re not selling to a business, you are selling to an individual whose income is directly tied to their business and not an employer (i.e. they “eat what they kill.”) Their view of the economy and their future prospects are more closely allied to the views of the overall public and will dictate how they will spend, invest, and grow their business.

As you can see in the above chart, the sentiment of purchasing managers does not have as strong a relationship to the small business index, and the factors purchasing managers use to make purchasing decisions and to assess the state of the economy are very different from those of your typical small business. Right now, corporate earnings continue to grow and corporate purchasing has been rather resilient. Conversely, personal income among consumers and the revenue of small business owners continues to be challenging and a drag to the economy.

Remember, selling to small business owners is a lot like selling to consumers, both respond to messages that will save them time and money. And for small business owners, you can also add in the message of more revenue.

The overall confidence of small business owners and the prospects of selling to them will improve when the overall sentiment of the economy improves, and this is directly tied to both groups’ faith in the political leaders who shape economic policy. If people believe that political leaders are incompetent, this will lead to a lack of confidence in the economy.

And based on the current numbers from the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, the public’s confidence in congressional leaders and the President remains rather low. With the coming budget battles over the next few weeks, I doubt that we will see much improvement in either of these indexes.

When the public’s confidence in their political leadership improves, you will begin to see some improvement in consumer sentiment, small business sentiment and small business employment.

As we get closer to next year’s elections and the prospect of changing the political landscape in Washington becomes more of a reality, we should start to see some improvement in consumers and business owners’ confidence in the economy and their political leadership. With that improvement, we should see a stronger uptick in the economy and stronger growth in the second half of 2012.

Until then… expect a bumpy ride.

This is the second reporting period in which ABC is counting circulation differently, so you can’t really compare current figures to previous periods and it doesn’t appear that anyone is really trying (or cares enough) to figure out a way to do it.

Circulation of the top two newspapers, The Wall Street Journal and USA Today, was down slightly compared to the previous six months.  The New York Times' circulation was up 25 percent due to its paid online subscribers. The digital paywall The New York Times erected in March appears to have also spurred an unexpected increase in print circulation.

Most analysts, me included, believe that publishers will not be able to collect enough from digital revenue to offset the declines in print revenue. The economics of the industry and digital media simply will not make up the difference.

Most newspapers offer undifferentiated content which drives down the price of their products to their marginal cost (i.e. the cost of producing one more unit of a good). The problem for most of these companies… as Mary Meeker likes to point out… is the marginal cost for digital content is $0. Content creation is cheap. Very cheap.

The only way these companies will be successful is to differentiate their content and demonstrate that they have something to offer or that they “know something” that you cannot get anywhere else.

This type of content is not cheap. Experts are expensive.

Consumers are not going to buy wire stories and poorly written local stories by overworked writers trying to feed the daily beast. I don’t want coverage, I want knowledge.

Less is more. Think niches.

Insider knowledge that clues the reader into inside information and insight that they cannot get anywhere else is the key. There has to be a reason I will pay for content. Create niches with content from someone knowledgeable about the topic. Don’t man it with a writer who just sources information; find someone who is or could be the source.

I’m not concerned that the writer is skilled at writing or reporting. I will pay for believable knowledge about something I care about, not necessarily about the writer’s ability to turn a phrase. Writing ability is a bonus, but not my primary motivation to buy.

Create personalities or content creators who offer inside information and a demonstrated amount of knowledge about a topic I care about and I will pay for it. It might be news and insight on my favorite sports team (i.e. Nashville Predators) or details on why the stock market dropped today or scoop on what the movers and shakers are doing in the local business community and who is profiting from it.

Prove to me that you know stuff I want to know and I might buy it. Don’t try to right the world’s wrongs. I want to learn something from a source that I trust. 

Want proof?

I subscribe to Stratfor Global Intelligence to stay abreast of political, economic, and military events and their significance. Stratfor sells what they call “human intelligence” on subjects that is not readily available. They provide content and context I can’t get anywhere else.

And guess what… I’m buying it.

Pent-up demand can cover everything from auto sales to home purchases to travel. It can also lead to a surge of activity in areas outside of consumer products or services.

One such area is divorce.

As you can see from this chart, divorce rates typically fall as unemployment rates rise.

US Unemployment and Divorce Rates 2000 to 2009

As we begin to see improvement in the economy, we will probably see increased rates of divorce as consumers become more confident in the stability of their incomes, the outlook for the economy, and their ability to form a separate household.

The relationship between labor force participation and divorce has been studied by economists for many years. The prevailing wisdom among most economists (explained in more detail in this 2004 AEJ paper) theorizes that female labor force participation increases income, financial independence, and consequently, the probability of divorce. Financial independence is generally regarded as the strongest of these factors.

As we see continued improvement in the economy over the next couple of years, we should see a pickup in home sales, rentals and probably household formations as current single households become two households.

This has implications for many industries outside of divorce attorneys. We should see an uptick in home sales, cosmetic surgery as newly singled couples prepare for finding new mates, and stronger traffic for dating websites. This also impacts fashions and apparel styles since singles and divorcees tend to be more fashion conscious than married couples with children. Apparel sales should benefit from the coming boom as well.

This also has implications on voting and elections.

Ending a marriage is a stressful process that frequently disrupts familiar routines, including voting. Married adults are more likely to vote than those who have never been married; in turn, previously married people are the lightest voters.

Because voting requires two considered routine actions (registration and turnout), divorce negatively impacts voting. Married partners have help with household tasks and also most of the chores associated with voting: not only registration, but also locating polling places or obtaining absentee ballots.

After the 2012 elections where turnout should be relatively strong for a myriad of reasons, we should start to see decreasing levels of voter turnout over the following few cycles as the economy continues to recover from the great recession, and unfortunately, due to an increasing number of dissolving households.

Construction:

• The annualized level of total housing starts in September was up 15% from August, reflecting some strengthening from this summer's trough. The biggest driver of monthly gains was a pick-up in multi-family starts, which grew by 51% on an annualized basis from August to September.

Retails Sales:

• U.S. retail sales up 1.1 percent in September

 Employment:

• The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims declined this week to 403,000. This is the lowest level for the 4-week average of weekly claims since April

While the recovery remains exceptionally weak, it does not appear that we will face a second recession in the near future. This assumes (a very big assumption) that we do not face any additional policy headwinds from Washington D.C. leading up to the super budget committee deadline. It also assumes that Europe will continue to kick the can down the road, which will lead to continued volatility in the stock markets with minimal impact on the U.S. economy.

One weak area is consumer confidence, which slumped in October to the lowest level since the recession. The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index’s monthly expectations gauge dropped to minus 45, the worst reading since February 2009.

The weakness in consumer confidence is more a function of the political climate and lack of faith in political leadership rather than a barometer on the current state of the economy.

If consumers have confidence in the political leaders who shape economic policy, this may enhance their confidence in the future of the economy. If people believe that political leaders are incompetent, this may lead to a lack of confidence in the economy. Since the public's confidence in our leadership in Washington is at all time lows, I am opting for the latter scenario.

While politicians try to influence both the economy and economic sentiment, much of their effort has little direct influence on the economy, but it may well have an impact on economic sentiment. Sentiment can also be influenced by poll respondents’ tendency to view the economy as something separate from their own personal financial situation. Quite often, respondents to polls will have a rather dour outlook on the economy while they rate their own economic situation as good. I often hear focus groups participants say, “I’m doing okay, but my neighbors and people in my community are really struggling.”

Consumer confidence is an important part of the picture that typically says more about the mindset of the public instead of the current dynamics of the economy.

Many of these essays have cited a Jobs quip to a reporter who asked about the market research that went into the iPad. He famously told the reporter, "None. It's not the consumers' job to know what they want."

While Jobs and team eschewed research for R&D, it should be noted that Apple has done a lot of research ranging from customer satisfaction with AppleCare to research around the launch iTunes and maintains a significant marketing research department.

Jobs and his R&D team could get away with not doing market research or talking with customers because of the markets they played in, their innate skills, and their cult-like customers. They simply designed elegant high quality products with simple interfaces that appealed to one audience—themselves. And in their market and with their brand, they could get away with it.

If you’re Jobs and your team has that discipline and skill to think through what people will want, you can skip research. But how many companies have a Steve Jobs? Jobs was one of a kind and I doubt that there will be another. Unless you have a Steve Jobs as CEO or as head of R&D, I would discourage eliminating your research budget. 

Granted, this assumes that our friends in Washington avoid making any substantial mistakes that could damage the economy (a big if) and that we don’t see a run-up in commodity prices (mainly oil and gas).

While there is plenty to worry about and the current economic numbers remain troubling, my outlook going into an election year foresees modest growth and continued improvement in the economy. Typically, we see economic improvement in an election year and without any negative legislation coming out of D.C., I remain cautiously optimistic going into 2011.

Tip 1: Don’t rush to roll out your product

Tip 2: When a great idea grabs you, grab back

Tip 3: Persevere, persevere and persevere

Tip 4: Don’t let anyone sidetrack you from your goal

Tip 5: Each of us has a unique contribution to make to the world