The latest Rasmussen Employment Index finds that only 26% of American workers now say their employers are laying people off. That’s the lowest number reporting layoffs since last November.

However last week’s ADP survey suggested that job weakness was still high and the Labor Department’s employment report indicated that more jobs were lost in September than in August.

I think it is safe to say that a V shaped recovery is out of the question. There is just not enough consumer strength or wealth to sustain a quick improvement in consumer expenditures. Until real wages grow faster than inflation, we will not see any major upticks in growth.

A slow, steady, but uneven march upward is the most likely scenario. Think 2% growth for next year. Not strong, but enough to keep us steady.